Weekly Valuation Tracker
Viridian highlights a specific industry sector and provides a deep dive into valuation metrics and comparable company valuations for public companies operating in that sector. The Weekly Valuation Tracker provides proprietary, actionable valuation data.
Weekly Valuation Report – Analysts Are Projecting Gains Starting in Q2 ’26
- The table below shows the results of the 3rd quarter earnings that have been released so far. Most of the largest MSOs have reported, except for Ascend, Glass House, Cannabist, and Vireo.
- Actuals for both revenues and EBITDA were within about 1% of estimates. This is hardly surprising, given that estimates are heavily influenced by the companies in the weeks leading up to the releases.
- We focus more on year-over-year changes in revenues and EBITDA. After all, investors are involved in Cannabis because they think it is a growth story. Unfortunately, the third quarter continues the trend from the first two quarters – lower y/o/y revenues and EBITDA. The group reported 1.7% lower revenues and 6.1% lower EBITDA compared to the third quarter of 2024.
- Luckily, the growth story is expected to be restored in 2026. Analysts are projecting gains starting in Q2 ’26, and these gains are likely to accelerate as the year progresses. Virginia may actually begin sales of adult recreational products, which will boost growth in late 2026 and into 2027.
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Valuation Tracker By Sector
The Viridian Value Tracker is the most comprehensive valuation product in the industry.
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- A broad set of 12 valuation measures assures applicability, regardless of whether the company has analyst coverage or revenues. The typically presented EV/ Projected Revenues and EV/ Projected EBITDA are available for less than 1/3 of the cannabis companies we track.
- Most valuation studies present only the average valuation measures, while the Tracker goes one step further and shows the distribution of values (the quartiles, median, and dispersion) for each measure. This gives users a more complete view of how companies in the cohort group are valued.
Sector Valuation Report – Cultivation and Retail Sector Metrics as of 10/31/25
- The 27 Cultivation and Retail companies in our database with sell-side analyst coverage (comprising both US and Canadian companies) now trade at a median of approximately 5.68 times estimated 2026 EBITDA.
- The group now has a median EV/2026 revenues of 1.03x.
- Our bespoke measure of Adj. EV/2026 EBITDAR has a median of 6.09x, and we believe that figure is more consistent with economic reality. We include both operating leases (considered debt) and excess tax liabilities (those over 90 days of tax expense, also considered debt) in our definition of enterprise value. Our measure makes the sector appear less inexpensive than the standard measure suggests. Nonetheless, we believe the potential is to increase to well over 10 times.
- Interestingly, the group continues to trade at a steep discount (0.6x) to book value, suggesting that the market believes some of the assets, such as licenses and goodwill, have declined in value since the acquisition.
- Valuations generally declined slightly in the week ended 10/31/25.
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Sector Valuation Report – Cultivation and Retail Sector Metrics as of 10/31/25
- The 27 Cultivation and Retail companies in our database with sell-side analyst coverage (comprising both US and Canadian companies) now trade at a median of approximately 5.68 times estimated 2026 EBITDA.
- The group now has a median EV/2026 revenues of 1.03x.
- Our bespoke measure of Adj. EV/2026 EBITDAR has a median of 6.09x, and we believe that figure is more consistent with economic reality. We include both operating leases (considered debt) and excess tax liabilities (those over 90 days of tax expense, also considered debt) in our definition of enterprise value. Our measure makes the sector appear less inexpensive than the standard measure suggests. Nonetheless, we believe the potential is to increase to well over 10 times.
- Interestingly, the group continues to trade at a steep discount (0.6x) to book value, suggesting that the market believes some of the assets, such as licenses and goodwill, have declined in value since the acquisition.
- Valuations generally declined slightly in the week ended 10/31/25.