Weekly Valuation Tracker
Viridian highlights a specific industry sector and provides a deep dive into valuation metrics and comparable company valuations for public companies operating in that sector. The Weekly Valuation Tracker provides proprietary, actionable valuation data.
Weekly Valuation Report – Expectations for Q3’25 – No help from fundamentals
- The chart below breaks down analysts’ Q3’25 expectations for y/o/y EBITDA growth. The green line shows the percentage growth in EBITDA from Q3’24A to Q3’25E. The orange bar shows the percentage change that is attributable to changes in EBITDA margins, while the blue bars depict the change that is caused by expected changes in revenues.
- The expected y/o/y changes in EBITDA range from -35% for Cannabist (largely due to sales of operations) to a positive 26% for MariMed (largely due to improved margins). The aggregate EBITDA for the group is projected to be down 6.9%, of which 4.4% is due to lower revenues and 2.5% to lower EBITDA Margins.
- But why are we even harping about this? Don’t we know it’s all about rescheduling, and that nobody cares about fundamentals? Yes and No. Obviously, the day-to-day trading of cannabis equities is dominated by the rumour du jour, and volatility is correspondingly high.
- But fundamentally, the point is that most investors got into cannabis because of a growth story that is not in evidence in 2025. When will this situation turn around?
- Analysts are projecting more bad news in Q4’25 before sales comparisons turn positive in Q1’26. EBITDA comparisons are not expected to turn positive until Q2’26. For the full year 2026, EBITDA is expected to be up about 8% after being down a similar amount in 2025. The 2026 story may feature major new adult markets, such as Virginia and Pennsylvania. Bottom line: The growth story is delayed but not destroyed.
This Chart is Only Available to Higher Tier Memberships
Please Purchase a Basic, Premium, or Enterprise membership to see more.
Valuation Tracker By Sector
The Viridian Value Tracker is the most comprehensive valuation product in the industry.
-
- A broad set of 12 valuation measures assures applicability, regardless of whether the company has analyst coverage or revenues. The typically presented EV/ Projected Revenues and EV/ Projected EBITDA are available for less than 1/3 of the cannabis companies we track.
- Most valuation studies present only the average valuation measures, while the Tracker goes one step further and shows the distribution of values (the quartiles, median, and dispersion) for each measure. This gives users a more complete view of how companies in the cohort group are valued.
Sector Valuation Report – U.S. Cultivation & Retail Sector
- The table below shows the key valuation metrics for the Cultivation & Retail sector as of 10/10/25.
- Note the bottom line on the table, IQR/Median. The metric with the tightest grouping at .66 is EV/2025 EBITDA, indicating that this is the measure the market appears to be trading on. Around 50% of the companies in the group trade between 4.76x and 9.67x 2025 EBITDA, with 25% over that range and 25% under.
- This is a very wide range of valuations, and part of that is due to the sample including companies from all geographic regions. We have noted before that the Canadian companies tend to trade at higher EBITDA multiples, both because they can trade on senior exchanges and because they are not subject to 280E
- Our preferred measure of central tendency is the median Adjusted EV/2026 EBITDAR of 6.63x, which accounts for both operating leases and uncertain tax liabilities.
This Chart is Only Available to Higher Tier Memberships
Please Purchase a Premium or Enterprise membership to see more.
Sector Valuation Report – U.S. Cultivation & Retail Sector
- The table below shows the key valuation metrics for the Cultivation & Retail sector as of 10/10/25.
- Note the bottom line on the table, IQR/Median. The metric with the tightest grouping at .66 is EV/2025 EBITDA, indicating that this is the measure the market appears to be trading on. Around 50% of the companies in the group trade between 4.76x and 9.67x 2025 EBITDA, with 25% over that range and 25% under.
- This is a very wide range of valuations, and part of that is due to the sample including companies from all geographic regions. We have noted before that the Canadian companies tend to trade at higher EBITDA multiples, both because they can trade on senior exchanges and because they are not subject to 280E
- Our preferred measure of central tendency is the median Adjusted EV/2026 EBITDAR of 6.63x, which accounts for both operating leases and uncertain tax liabilities.