Weekly Valuation Tracker
Viridian highlights a specific industry sector and provides a deep dive into valuation metrics and comparable company valuations for public companies operating in that sector. The Weekly Valuation Tracker provides proprietary, actionable valuation data.
Weekly Valuation Report – 1st Quarter Earnings are out for a majority of the big MSOs, including GTI, Curealeafl, Trulieve, and Verano. Although the results were generally down as expected on a y/o/y basis, there are some hopeful signs in the releases.
- Only two of the companies in the table below beat EBITDA expectations, but the two were Trulieve and GTI, and they are large enough to create an overall group beat.
- Similarly, EBITDA for the quarter was down by 10.0% for the group that has reported, significantly better than the 15% expected for the whole cohort.
- The real news, which we will be sure to watch carefully, is the estimate revisions that follow these reports. Our Chart of the Week commented on the fact that analysts were projecting a 15% decline for the 1st quarter but increases in the second half of the year. We are skeptical that those forecasts will hold, but we are hoping they do!
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Valuation Tracker By Sector
The Viridian Value Tracker is the most comprehensive valuation product in the industry.
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- A broad set of 12 valuation measures assures applicability, regardless of whether the company has analyst coverage or revenues. The typically presented EV/ Projected Revenues and EV/ Projected EBITDA are available for less than 1/3 of the cannabis companies we track.
- Most valuation studies present only the average valuation measures, while the Tracker goes one step further and shows the distribution of values (the quartiles, median, and dispersion) for each measure. This gives users a more complete view of how companies in the cohort group are valued.
Sector Valuation – Cultivation & Retail valuation metrics continue to tick upward
- The Cultivation & Retail sector is on a tear. The MSOS was up another 6.76% for the week ended 5/2/25, and perhaps more importantly, this is the first time that the ETF has been up four weeks in a row since 4/24/24, and if we manage to close up this week, it will be an event that has only happened seven times since September 2020. The MSOS was up over 38% over the last four weeks.
- The median EV/ 2025 EBITDA is now 4.89x, up from 4.73x last week and 41x a month ago. The median value of our bespoke valuation measure, Adjusted EV/ 2025 EBITDAR, now stands at 5.87x, up from 5.83x last week.
- The sector median of EV/ 2025 revenues is now .84x vs .69x a month ago.
- Bottom line: we are seeing some upward drift in valuation metrics, and it is encouraging to see the trend continue for 3 weeks in a row. Maybe it is the start of an upward trend? Valuations still have an enormous upside from here if we can get the attention of one man in Washington.
This Chart is Only Available to Higher Tier Memberships
Please Purchase a Premium or Enterprise membership to see more.
Sector Valuation – Cultivation & Retail valuation metrics continue to tick upward
- The Cultivation & Retail sector is on a tear. The MSOS was up another 6.76% for the week ended 5/2/25, and perhaps more importantly, this is the first time that the ETF has been up four weeks in a row since 4/24/24, and if we manage to close up this week, it will be an event that has only happened seven times since September 2020. The MSOS was up over 38% over the last four weeks.
- The median EV/ 2025 EBITDA is now 4.89x, up from 4.73x last week and 41x a month ago. The median value of our bespoke valuation measure, Adjusted EV/ 2025 EBITDAR, now stands at 5.87x, up from 5.83x last week.
- The sector median of EV/ 2025 revenues is now .84x vs .69x a month ago.
- Bottom line: we are seeing some upward drift in valuation metrics, and it is encouraging to see the trend continue for 3 weeks in a row. Maybe it is the start of an upward trend? Valuations still have an enormous upside from here if we can get the attention of one man in Washington.
