Weekly Valuation Tracker
Viridian highlights a specific industry sector and provides a deep dive into valuation metrics and comparable company valuations for public companies operating in that sector. The Weekly Valuation Tracker provides proprietary, actionable valuation data.
Weekly Valuation Report – Did Analysts Overshoot on the Downside?
- The chart below shows consensus analyst estimate revisions since the beginning of the year broken down into the portion attributable to revenue estimate revisions and the part due to EBITDA margin revisions.
- 2025 EBITDA estimates have been revised upward by 0.86%, with a negative component from decreased sales estimates of 4.42% made up for by a 5.26 component from higher EBITDA margin estimates.
- Six of the companies on the chart have had upward revisions in their 2025 EBITDA estimates, despite eight of them having had lower 4th quarter EBITDA than in the previous year and eleven of them having lower 1st quarter 25 estimates relative to 1st quarter of 24.
- It’s a mixed bag in terms of the drivers of the EBITDA estimate reductions. Some companies like MariMed (MRMD: CSE)(MRMD: OTCQB) have had significant decreases in both revenue and EBITDA margin estimates, resulting in around a 20% downward adjustment in estimates. Cannabist (CBST: Cboe) saw a 20% cut in EBITDA due to lower revenue estimates, partially mitigated by increases in EBITDA margin estimates. The company sold money-losing operations in Florida and Arizona.
- Glass House (GLASF: OTC) is the only company with upward revisions to revenues.
- The pattern, taken in context with actual 4th quarter performance and 1st Qtr 25 estimates, suggests that analysts got a little ahead of themselves on the downward revisions and are selectively moving some projections upward.
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Valuation Tracker By Sector
The Viridian Value Tracker is the most comprehensive valuation product in the industry.
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- A broad set of 12 valuation measures assures applicability, regardless of whether the company has analyst coverage or revenues. The typically presented EV/ Projected Revenues and EV/ Projected EBITDA are available for less than 1/3 of the cannabis companies we track.
- Most valuation studies present only the average valuation measures, while the Tracker goes one step further and shows the distribution of values (the quartiles, median, and dispersion) for each measure. This gives users a more complete view of how companies in the cohort group are valued.
Sector Valuation – Have MSO valuation multiples hit bottom?
- The chart below looks at aggregate enterprise value to aggregate consensus estimates of the next twelve-month EBITDA for a group that includes Curaleaf, GTI, Cresco, TerrAscend, Trulieve, Verano, Ascend, AYR, Cannabist, Jushi, Vext, and Vibe.
- Multiples were steady to slightly increasing for most of 2023 and only really began to decline sharply in April 2024.
- We know we are not smart enough to time this market. However, at 4x forward EBITDA, in a relatively recession-resilient industry, it continues to look attractive. We are only missing an anticipatable catalyst.
This Chart is Only Available to Higher Tier Memberships
Please Purchase a Premium or Enterprise membership to see more.
Sector Valuation – Have MSO valuation multiples hit bottom?
- The chart below looks at aggregate enterprise value to aggregate consensus estimates of the next twelve-month EBITDA for a group that includes Curaleaf, GTI, Cresco, TerrAscend, Trulieve, Verano, Ascend, AYR, Cannabist, Jushi, Vext, and Vibe.
- Multiples were steady to slightly increasing for most of 2023 and only really began to decline sharply in April 2024.
- We know we are not smart enough to time this market. However, at 4x forward EBITDA, in a relatively recession-resilient industry, it continues to look attractive. We are only missing an anticipatable catalyst.
