OUR 9TH YEAR OF PROVIDING PROPRIETARY CAPITAL MARKETS INTELLIGENCE ON THE CANNABIS / HEMP / PSYCHEDELIC SECTORS
Mergers & Acquisitions
Mergers & Acquisitions Summary
Each week, Viridian publishes insights and analysis on completed M&A transactions in the prior week. Our analysis includes:
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- M&A Market Commentary
- Public and Private Companies
- Buyers & Sellers
- YTD M&A Analysis
- M&A by Industry Sector
- Deal Structure and Valuation Analysis
- Pending Deal Risk Arb Analysis
- Valuation Gap Analysis
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Transaction Activities
Week ended 10/28/2022
- Three M&A transactions closed this week with a $115.9M transaction value compared to three transactions for $27.4M in the prior year.
YTD Activities
Total YTD M&A volume is down 80.2% from 2021, with $4.76B in consideration and 151 deals closed versus $23.91B in transaction value and 276 closings in 2021.
- Last year’s total included two of the largest M&A transactions ever done in cannabis, the $4.5B Tilray acquisition of Aphria and the $7.2B Jazz Pharma acquisition of GW Pharma. Without the two megadeals mentioned above, the volume in 2022 would trail 2021 by 61.0% YTD.
- We believe the likelihood of relatively sizeable public/public M&A transactions has increased significantly based on the low trading multiples of tier 2 and 3 MSOs and SSOs, particularly those perceived to be cash flow pressured.
U.S. volume is down 67.5% YTD, with 38.5% fewer transactions.
- The average transaction size of $33.9M is down 47.2% from 2021. Still, 2022’s average is expected to grow as large public/public transactions like Cresco/Columbia Care close in the 4th quarter.
Pending Risk Deal Arb Analysis
- The Cresco/Columbia deal spread narrowed by 90 bp to 14.9% on 10/28/22. The market has now taken the collapse of the Verano/Goodness Growth deal in stride and realizes that the Cresco/Columbia transaction has a broader basis. There are ostensibly three New York properties on the market at this point: Goodness Growth, MedMen, and Columbia Care, but we do not believe this issue will hold up the closing of the deal, which is expected to occur in the 4th quarter.
Valuation Gap Analysis
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- The valuation gap narrowed to 3.52 on 10/281/22, still below its 3.96 LTM average. The valuation gap is the difference between the EV/NTM EBITDA multiple for the largest MSOs and the multiple for the less than $300M market cap group, which are their primary targets.
- This measure has been a significant driver of M&A activity since a larger gap creates an opportunity for more accretive transactions. The gap tends to increase in improving markets while declining in retreating markets.
- A gap of over 4 points is conducive to accretive transactions between the largest MSOs and smaller competitors. At the same time, a tighter financing market makes it more challenging for small companies to finance the growth of their business.
- We note that the gap is based on trading prices and not on values where a company could raise significant amounts of capital. The difference is crucial because one of the key drivers we see for accelerating M&A activity is the inability of smaller companies to finance themselves in the current cannabis capital markets.
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