Weekly Valuation Tracker
Viridian highlights a specific industry sector and provides a deep dive into valuation metrics and comparable company valuations for public companies operating in that sector. The Weekly Valuation Tracker provides proprietary, actionable valuation data.
Weekly Valuation Report – U.S. MSOs with over $100M market cap. Where do valuation metrics stand after the post-election cataclysm?
- As of 11/11/24, there were 11 U.S. MSOs with market caps over $100M compared to 14 on 11/1/24.
- Valuation metrics for the eleven are presented below. Adjusted EV (which includes lease obligations and excess taxes) to 2025 EBITDAR is down more than a full turn to 5.13x compared to 6.38x in the previous week. Similarly, EV/ 2025 EBITDA has fallen to 4.73x compared to 6.26x a week ago.
- This is the steepest decline in valuation we have tracked over the industry’s history. Not even during the worst weeks in late 2021 was the fall this steep. We find it hard to believe that the largest eleven MSOs now trade at under 5x 2025 EBITDA.
- We remain bullish. And our optimism doesn’t rely on who will become Attorney General or if Chris Christie thinks Trump will do great things. We simply believe stocks have gotten stupidly cheap.
- We are well aware of the challenges to growth and the increased difficulty that lower stock values could present in refinancing the approximately $2B of debt maturing in 2026.
- Still, the direction of change appears to us to be irreversible. Will rescheduling/de-scheduling/SAFER/Uplisting or some combination of these things happen? Almost certainly, just don’t ask us exactly when. Meanwhile, stock selection is more critical than ever. And in a chaotic environment, we continue to think that the key is not stepping in Sh**t. A portfolio focused on the top ten credits in the Viridian Credit ranking with perhaps a little sprinkling of spec is the right strategy.
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Valuation Tracker By Sector
The Viridian Value Tracker is the most comprehensive valuation product in the industry.
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- A broad set of 12 valuation measures assures applicability, regardless of whether the company has analyst coverage or revenues. The typically presented EV/ Projected Revenues and EV/ Projected EBITDA are available for less than 1/3 of the cannabis companies we track.
- Most valuation studies present only the average valuation measures, while the Tracker goes one step further and shows the distribution of values (the quartiles, median, and dispersion) for each measure. This gives users a more complete view of how companies in the cohort group are valued.
Sector Valuation – Psychedelics –Tripping through the cannabis sector fall unscathed
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- The Psychedelics sector has largely avoided the cannabis stock bloodbath. Median market to tangible book value for the nineteen Psychedelic companies in the Viridian Value Tracker has risen to 1.01x compared to .88x last week and the third quartile value of 3.09x is up from 2.39x last week. It turns out that last week was an excellent time for a bit of escape.
This Chart is Only Available to Higher Tier Memberships
Please Purchase a Premium or Enterprise membership to see more.
Sector Valuation – Psychedelics –Tripping through the cannabis sector fall unscathed
-
- The Psychedelics sector has largely avoided the cannabis stock bloodbath. Median market to tangible book value for the nineteen Psychedelic companies in the Viridian Value Tracker has risen to 1.01x compared to .88x last week and the third quartile value of 3.09x is up from 2.39x last week. It turns out that last week was an excellent time for a bit of escape.
